With the Trump administration set to begin its second term on January 20, key figures in its foreign policy and national security team are signaling a possible change in the U.S. approach to North Korea. Rather than continuing to push for complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization (CVID), the new approach may involve recognizing North Korea’s nuclear capabilities while prioritizing crisis management. This could mean pursuing a smaller deal, such as a nuclear arms reduction or freezing agreement. If this strategy is combined with Trump’s signature top-down leadership style—direct negotiations between heads of state—it could sideline South Korea and abandon the goal of full denuclearization of North Korea altogether.
During his Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing, Rubio openly acknowledged that U.S. sanctions have not been successful in halting North Korea’s nuclear progress. He mentioned that no sanctions had prevented North Korea from developing its nuclear capabilities. This candid admission highlighted the shortcomings of past U.S. policies in stopping the advancement of North Korea’s missile and nuclear technology.
Rubio emphasized the importance of finding ways to reduce the risk of accidental war involving South Korea, potentially Japan, and ultimately the United States. He also stressed that the U.S. must avoid actions that could encourage other nations to develop their own nuclear weapons programs.
When Senator Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) asked about revisiting the failed policy on North Korea, Rubio described Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Dismantlement (CVID) as a fantasy. He explained that there is growing recognition of the need for a more comprehensive review of U.S. policy toward North Korea. Given the points raised, Rubio added that it is necessary to consider the issue from a broader perspective, making it difficult for him to definitively state the future U.S. position on the matter at that time.
These comments have sparked concerns that the Trump administration’s North Korea policy could shift toward accepting North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, focusing instead on reducing the risk of war and managing security crises on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. The day before, Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth referred to North Korea as a nuclear power, signaling a recognition of its nuclear capabilities. Additionallybeforeof the election, the Republican Party notably removed the denuclearization clause from its platform, further fueling speculation about a change in U.S. policy.
Despite his initial skepticism, Rubio offered a positive assessment of the U.S.-North Korea summits during Trump’s first term. He admitted that he was among the skeptics at first. He noted that President Trump tried to reach out to Kim Jong Un, but Kim refused to negotiate on two occasions, ultimately leading to the failure to reach a sustainable agreement.
Rubio acknowledged that President Trump’s efforts managed to halt North Korea’s missile tests, although he clarified that this did not stop the advancement of North Korea’s nuclear program. However, he pointed out that it helped at least de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.