An analysis suggests that it is premature to view Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, as his successor.
Kwak Gil Seop, head of the One Korea Center, stated at the 75th Unification Strategy Forum hosted by Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies on Tuesday that “North Korea has already introduced and operates a First Secretary system as a contingency measure in case of Kim Jong Un’s incapacitation, meaning Kim Ju Ae is not being groomed as a successor in preparation for such an event.” He emphasized that “everything related to Kim Ju Ae could be carefully staged, and this should be kept in mind.”
Kwak pointed out several strategic benefits North Korea gains from highlighting Kim Ju Ae: diverting attention from international sanctions to discussions about Kim Ju Ae, reinforcing the notion of a permanent Baekdu bloodline succession, portraying Kim Jong Un as a caring leader concerned about future generations, and increasing interest in North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.
Jung Joon Hee, a research fellow at Sejong University’s Institute for National Governance, also analyzed that “North Korea, as a ‘theater state,’ has successfully shifted the global focus from nuclear issues to the successor debate using Kim Ju Ae.” He added, “The more discussions revolve around whether Kim Jong Un has a son, the more it solidifies North Korea as a hereditary Kim family dynasty.”
During the forum, speculation also arose that former U.S. President Donald Trump could propose suspending U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises as a condition for engaging in dialogue with North Korea.
Kim Sang Ki, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, stated, “A temporary halt to U.S.-South Korea joint exercises and the deployment of U.S. strategic assets could be perceived by North Korea as a signal that Washington’s policy of hostility toward Pyongyang might shift, as well as a step toward creating conditions for dialogue.” He noted that “the Trump administration has viewed these exercises and strategic deployments primarily as cost issues, making a temporary suspension a plausible option.”
However, Kim also pointed out that it remains uncertain whether North Korea will accept Trump’s proposal. Even if suspending the exercises and asset deployments creates an opportunity for dialogue, North Korea’s response would depend on what topics the U.S. chooses to put on the negotiation table.