On the 21st, a flight from London to Singapore carrying 229 passengers, made an emergency landing in Bangkok, Thailand after encountering turbulence. This incident resulted in one fatality and 71 injuries. Following this incident, it is analyzed that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of turbulence.
According to a CNN report on the 21st (local time), approximately 65,000 aircraft in the U.S. alone experience turbulence every year, of which about 5,500 encounter severe turbulence. Professor Paul Williams from the Department of Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading in the UK pointed out that the climate crisis could increase the frequency of turbulence. Professor Williams, who has been conducting related research since 2013, confirmed to CNN in 2022 that “computer simulations indicate that severe turbulence could double or even triple in the coming decades.”
The Guardian also reported that Williams’ research team confirmed a 55% increase in the occurrence of severe turbulence from 1979 to 2020. Williams particularly focused on the occurrence of clear-air turbulence (CAT), which emerges suddenly in clear skies. It occurs suddenly without signs like storms or clouds, making it difficult to avoid. Williams predicted a surge in CAT from 2050 to 2080. According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the cabin crew did not receive prior warnings for about 28% of accidents caused by turbulence from 2009 to 2018. Furthermore, Williams stated that “typically, turbulence may be encountered for about 10 minutes when flying over the Atlantic Ocean, but this could increase to 20 or even 30 minutes within a few decades,” suggesting that the average duration of turbulence could also increase. CNN advised that passengers must always wear their seatbelts while seated to reduce the risk of injury from turbulence.