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Friday, July 5, 2024

Could U.S. Nukes on Korean Peninsula Spark War?

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Robert Gallucci, former U.S. State Department special envoy for North Korean nuclear issues, criticized the argument for the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and Japan, calling it an “ignorant idea.” Former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda also expressed cautions against such claims, stating that he “opposes any further nuclear proliferation,”

Gallucci, currently an honorary professor at Georgetown University, attended the 19th Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity held at the Jeju International Convention Center in Seogwipo, Jeju, on the 30th. He warned, “Tactical nuclear weapons may not have as much explosive power as strategic nuclear weapons, but they still can obliterate an entire city. Deploying tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula would rather make them a target for nuclear attacks.”

Strategic nuclear weapons refer to nuclear weapons with hundreds of kilotons to megatons of power, designed to destroy an enemy’s capability to wage war. Tactical nuclear weapons, on the other hand, refer to nuclear weapons with a power of less than 10 kilotons, used to attack limited military targets in a specific area. Gallucci criticized, “The proposal by some within the Republican Party to redeploy U.S. nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula is an ignorant idea. It’s a thought that would not benefit South Korea, North Korea, or even the United States.”

Gallucci, who had previously warned of the possibility of a nuclear war in Northeast Asia this year through a column, said, “I wrote the article to examine the possible bad outcomes. I hope for the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence, but as a realist, I believe nuclear deterrence can fail.” He predicted the possibility of a nuclear war being triggered by conflicts between the two Koreas, mistakes during transportation, and other factors. Gallucci emphasized the need for dialogue, saying, “Without improvement in inter-Korean and North Korea-U.S. relations, we can’t achieve North Korea’s denuclearization.” He explained, “North Korea abandoning nuclear weapons indicates creating an environment where they can feel safe without nuclear weapons, but there is a lack of consideration from the international community. We need to empathize with North Korea’s position and engage in dialogue.”

Fukuda also said, “If the redeployment of South Korea-Japan tactical nuclear weapons aligns with the interests of the U.S., implementation is possible,” but also expressed doubt, saying, “I’m skeptical if there is anyone seriously considering this.” He firmly stated, “Japan’s stance against nuclear proliferation remains unchanged.” He also emphasized the importance of close cooperation among neighboring countries in response to North Korea’s military provocations.

Fukuda said, “In dealing with North Korea issues, South Korea and Japan need to join forces to determine the direction and carry out specific persuasion efforts. It’s also important to maintain good relations with neighboring countries.” He also mentioned the trilateral summit between South Korea, Japan, and China held on the 27th, saying, “China should participate in these negotiations.”

Regarding the Japanese government’s plan to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, up from less than 1%, Fukuda said, “Japan is extremely restrained in exercising military power, based on a peace constitution. I do not believe Japan needs to enter into an arms race, nor do I think it will.” Fukuda suggested that the plan to increase defense spending could be a result of U.S. demands, citing the example of NATO member countries promising to spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense. He emphasized, “It’s about aligning with global standards rather than a step towards military expansion.”

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